Argentina v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 27
29 August 2026Estadio 23 de Agosto, San Salvador
What the model says about Argentina v Australia
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1248 m
- Temperature
- 12.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Boris Wenger
- 2Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 3Francisco Moreno
- 4Guido Petti(c)-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera(c)-1.1
- 7Benjamin Grondona
- 8Joaquin Moro
- 9Simon Benitez Cruz
- 10Santiago Carreras(c)
- 11Ignacio Mendy
- 12Faustino Sanchez Valarolo
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Gerónimo Prisciantelli
Replacements
- 16Leonel Oviedo
- 17Rodrigo Martinez
- 18Tomas Rapetti
- 19Efraín Elías
- 20Juan Penoucos
- 21Agustín Moyano
- 22Nicolás Roger
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
Australia
- 1Isaac Kailea
- 2Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 3Allan Alaalatoa(c)-0.8
- 4Josh Canham
- 5Jeremy Williams
- 6Tom Hooper-6.0
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Ryan Lonergan
- 10Carter Gordon
- 11Harry Potter-1.0
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Isaac Henry
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Massimo De Lutiis
- 19Lachlan Shaw
- 20Charlie Cale
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 38.0% | Possession | 62.0% |
| 48.0% | Territory | 52.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 88 | Carries | 139 |
| 418m | Carry metres | 363m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 3 | Offloads | 11 |
| 96 | Passes | 198 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 187 | Tackles made | 112 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 7 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 73.0% | Lineout success | 93.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 91.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 59 | Rucks won | 107 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 615m | Kick metres | 624m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.