Argentina v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 28
5 September 2026Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
What the model says about Argentina v Australia
- Kick-off
- 21:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 830 m
- Temperature
- 7.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Forecast for the day of the match, from Open-Meteo. It will be replaced by what the weather actually did once the archive reaches that day.
-32.88968,-68.87990 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Boris Wenger
- 2Ignacio Ruiz+10.6
- 3Pedro Delgado
- 4Efraín Elías
- 5Franco Molina+5.4
- 6Pablo Matera(c)-1.4
- 7Guido Petti(c)-1.7
- 8Joaquin Moro
- 9Simon Benitez Cruz
- 10Nicolás Roger
- 11Ignacio Mendy
- 12Faustino Sanchez Valarolo
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.7
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.5
- 15Santiago Carreras(c)
Replacements
- 16Leonel Oviedo
- 17Mayco Vivas+3.5
- 18Francisco Moreno
- 19Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 20Juan Martin Scelzo
- 21Facundo Cardozo
- 22Gonzalo Bertranou-1.3
- 23Mateo Soler
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.3
- 2Billy Pollard+4.6
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Josh Canham
- 5Jeremy Williams
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+13.1
- 8Harry Wilson(c)+1.1
- 9Ryan Lonergan
- 10Ben Donaldson+3.5
- 11Filipo Daugunu-6.5
- 12Len Ikitau+3.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Tom Wright+13.5
Replacements
- 16Josh Nasser-12.2
- 17Aidan Ross
- 18Massimo De Lutiis
- 19Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+2.4
- 20Charlie Cale
- 21Kalani Thomas
- 22Carter Gordon
- 23Isaac Henry
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 771 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 63.0% | Possession | 37.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 153 | Carries | 94 |
| 317m | Carry metres | 292m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 32 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 8 | Offloads | 5 |
| 162 | Passes | 126 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 124 | Tackles made | 233 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 84.0% |
| 16 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 32 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 7 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 91.0% | Lineout success | 88.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 86.0% |
| 11 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 132 | Rucks won | 68 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kicks from hand | 16 |
| 504m | Kick metres | 396m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 4 | Conversions | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.