South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 28
12 September 2026M&T Bank Stadium
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 21:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 5 m
- Temperature
- 23.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Forecast for the day of the match, from Open-Meteo. It will be replaced by what the weather actually did once the archive reaches that day.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-4.7
- 2Malcolm Marx-3.9
- 3Wilco Louw-1.1
- 4Eben Etzebeth-13.0
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.7
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.5
- 8Jasper Wiese+6.8
- 9Morné van den Berg
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+6.7
- 11Ethan Hooker
- 12Damian de Allende-0.2
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.2
- 14Kurt-Lee Arendse-4.8
- 15Damian Willemse-4.8
Replacements
- 16Deon Fourie
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Thomas du Toit+2.9
- 19Lood de Jager-4.8
- 20André Esterhuizen+3.7
- 21Cameron Hanekom
- 22Cobus Reinach+5.0
- 23Manie Libbok-3.7
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-9.0
- 2Codie Taylor(c)-2.5
- 3Fletcher Newell-7.6
- 4Patrick Tuipulotu-6.0
- 5Sam Darry
- 6Tupou Vaa'i-5.7
- 7Ethan Blackadder
- 8Peter Lakai
- 9Cam Roigard+10.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+6.9
- 11Josh Moorby
- 12Jordie Barrett+8.0
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+0.9
- 14Will Jordan-8.8
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.4
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-3.7
- 17Xavier Numia
- 18Tyrel Lomax+1.2
- 19Josh Lord
- 20Wallace Sititi-8.8
- 21Kyle Preston
- 22Rieko Ioane+2.8
- 23Beauden Barrett-1.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 772 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 52.0% | Territory | 48.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 142 | Carries | 137 |
| 687m | Carry metres | 430m |
| 11 | Clean breaks | 8 |
| 30 | Defenders beaten | 32 |
| 9 | Offloads | 11 |
| 148 | Passes | 182 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 163 | Tackles made | 178 |
| 74.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 32 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 30 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 86.0% | Lineout success | 83.0% |
| 6 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 92.0% |
| 104 | Rucks won | 92 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kicks from hand | 17 |
| 488m | Kick metres | 481m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 4 |
| 5 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.