New Zealand vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
New Zealand 58.4%draw 3.0%38.6% South AfricaSouth Africa 48.8%draw 3.0%48.2% New ZealandNew Zealand 53.3%draw 3.0%43.7% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 South Africa and 29 New Zealand, with the middle run at 3 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 30-27 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours New Zealand, negative favours South Africa.
New Zealand 2045, South Africa 2036 — 9 points, favouring New Zealand
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand64–4–43South Africa111 meetings, 1921 to 2026 · New Zealand by 3.9 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · South Africa by 3.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | South Africa 16–33 New Zealand | — | Ellis Park |
| 2025-09-13 | New Zealand 10–43 South Africa | — | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-09-06 | New Zealand 24–17 South Africa | — | Eden Park |
| 2024-09-07 | South Africa 18–12 New Zealand | — | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-08-31 | South Africa 31–27 New Zealand | — | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 111. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.