New Zealand vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
New Zealand 64.8%draw 3.0%32.2% South AfricaSouth Africa 61.6%draw 3.0%35.4% New ZealandNew Zealand 52.7%draw 3.0%44.3% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for New Zealand v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are New Zealand wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 South Africa and 26 New Zealand, half of them between 3 South Africa and 14 New Zealand, with the middle run at 4 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why New Zealand are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of New Zealand winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps New Zealand, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
New Zealand 2476, South Africa 2512 — 36 points, favouring South Africa
New Zealand are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
New Zealand64–4–46South Africa114 meetings, 1921 to 2026 · New Zealand by 3.6 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · South Africa by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | South Africa 43–28 New Zealand | — | M&T Bank Stadium |
| 2026-09-05 | South Africa 29–24 New Zealand | — | FNB Stadium |
| 2026-08-29 | South Africa 33–26 New Zealand | — | DHL Stadium |
| 2026-08-22 | South Africa 16–33 New Zealand | — | Ellis Park |
| 2025-09-13 | New Zealand 10–43 South Africa | — | Hnry Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 114. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.