Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
42 – 38
27 September 2026Optus Stadium, Perth
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 09:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 16.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.8 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Forecast for the day of the match, from Open-Meteo. It will be replaced by what the weather actually did once the archive reaches that day.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.7
- 2Brandon Paenga-Amosa+13.2
- 3Allan Alaalatoa+0.5
- 4Jeremy Williams
- 5Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+2.9
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+13.5
- 8Harry Wilson+1.6
- 9Ryan Lonergan
- 10Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 11Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.7
- 13Len Ikitau+4.2
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Tom Wright+14.0
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17Aidan Ross
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.5
- 19Lachlan Shaw
- 20Tom Hooper-5.9
- 21Carlo Tizzano-5.3
- 22Tate McDermott+5.5
- 23Harry Potter
South Africa
- 1Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.5
- 2Johan Grobbelaar
- 3Zachary Porthen
- 4Eben Etzebeth-13.2
- 5Franco Mostert-1.5
- 6Paul de Villiers
- 7Elrigh Louw
- 8Marco van Staden-5.2
- 9Herschel Jantjies+3.2
- 10Handré Pollard-4.3
- 11Ethan Hooker
- 12André Esterhuizen+2.9
- 13Canan Moodie+5.8
- 14Edwill van der Merwe
- 15Aphelele Fassi-0.6
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Ox Nché-5.2
- 18Wilco Louw-1.9
- 19Lood de Jager-5.2
- 20Jasper Wiese+6.1
- 21Morné van den Berg
- 22Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.7
- 23Quan Horn
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 774 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 54.0% | Possession | 46.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 134 | Carries | 93 |
| 381m | Carry metres | 445m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 23 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 4 | Offloads | 5 |
| 179 | Passes | 107 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Tackles made | 161 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 23 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 14 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 97 | Rucks won | 65 |
| — | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 17 |
| 596m | Kick metres | 320m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 5 |
| 4 | Conversions | 4 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.