Tonga v Portugal
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 32
18 July 2026Princess Auto Stadium, Winnipeg · neutral venue
What the model says about Tonga v Portugal
- Kick-off
- 20:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 236 m
- Temperature
- 23.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Possession and territory
| Tonga | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 52.0% | Territory | 48.0% |
Attack
| Tonga | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Carries | 67 |
| 268m | Carry metres | 301m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 23 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 6 | Offloads | 2 |
| 134 | Passes | 95 |
Defence
| Tonga | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 65 | Tackles made | 157 |
| 76.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 23 |
| 5 | Dominant tackles | 13 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Tonga | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 71.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Tonga | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 82 | Rucks won | 44 |
| 10 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| Tonga | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 475m | Kick metres | 482m |
Discipline
| Tonga | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Tonga | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 5 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.