Japan v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 34
24 October 2026Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium, Tokyo
What the model says about Japan v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 05:50 UTC
- Elevation
- 40 m
- Temperature
- 15.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 17.1 mm
- Wind
- 5 km/h
Forecast for the day of the match, from Open-Meteo. It will be replaced by what the weather actually did once the archive reaches that day.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 2 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Yota Kamimori
- 2Mamoru Harada
- 3Keijiro Tamefusa
- 4Jack Cornelsen
- 5Warner Dearns(c)
- 6Ben Gunter
- 7Kanji Shimokawa
- 8Faulua Makisi-12.2
- 9Naoto Saitō(c)
- 10Ryunosuke Ito
- 11Inoke Burua
- 12Charlie Lawrence
- 13Samisoni Tua
- 14Kazuma Ueda
- 15Takuro Matsunaga
Replacements
- 16Kenji Sato
- 17Sojiro Otsuka
- 18Sanshiro Kihara
- 19Ruan Botha
- 20Michael Stolberg
- 21Esei Haangana
- 22Shinobu Fujiwara
- 23Chisu Lee
Fiji
- 1Peni Ravai+6.8
- 2Tevita Ikanivere(c)
- 3Inoke Ravuiwasa
- 4Mesake Vocevoce
- 5Isoa Nasilasila
- 6Aporosa Vuniyayawa
- 7Kitione Salawa
- 8Motikiai Murray
- 9Terio Tamani
- 10Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula
- 11Joji Nasova
- 12Isikeli Rabitu
- 13Tuidraki Samusamuvodre
- 14Nacani Boginisoko
- 15Isaac Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens
Replacements
- 16Kavaia Tagivetaua
- 17Meli Tuni
- 18Mesake Doge
- 19Vilive Miramira
- 20Peni Naruma
- 21Frank Lomani
- 22Ben Volavola
- 23Kavekini Boselawa
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 779 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Japan | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| Japan | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 128 | Carries | 92 |
| 494m | Carry metres | 343m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 25 |
| 9 | Offloads | 3 |
| 182 | Passes | 117 |
Defence
| Japan | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 129 | Tackles made | 148 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 25 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 4 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 11 |
Set pieces
| Japan | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 60.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 83.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Japan | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 91.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 84 | Rucks won | 79 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| Japan | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kicks from hand | 29 |
| 642m | Kick metres | 841m |
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 3 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 4 | Conversions | 4 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.