Nations Championship 2026

The share of simulations in which the team reached each stage. 3rd is winning the bronze final, which is a branch off the semi-finals rather than a step towards the trophy. Learn more

Team	Final	Champion
South Africa	56.6%	41.2%
New Zealand	43.4%	28.5%
France	43.8%	14.0%
Ireland	18.9%	7.1%
Scotland	20.8%	4.6%
England	16.4%	4.6%
Argentina	<0.1%	<0.1%
Australia	<0.1%	<0.1%
Fiji	<0.1%	<0.1%
Italy	<0.1%	<0.1%
Japan	<0.1%	<0.1%
Wales	<0.1%	<0.1%

Each tie lists the teams that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome. Select a tie for the full list, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.