Nations Championship 2026
Official site5,000 Monte Carlo simulations · 18 actual results locked in
The share of simulations in which the team reached each stage. 3rd is winning the bronze final, which is a branch off the semi-finals rather than a step towards the trophy. Learn more
 New Zealand | 55.8% | 34.0% |
 South Africa | 44.1% | 30.3% |
 France | 53.0% | 20.3% |
 Ireland | 20.8% | 8.9% |
 England | 12.6% | 3.6% |
 Scotland | 13.6% | 2.9% |
 Australia | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Argentina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Fiji | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Italy | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Japan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Wales | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.
Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.
Final
- New Zealand56% · 34%
- France53% · 20%
- South Africa44% · 30%
- Ireland21% · 9%
- Scotland14% · 3%
1 more
- England13% · 4%
All 36 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.