Nations Championship 2026

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ireland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ireland by 4 to Ireland by 24 · median Ireland by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ireland by 12 is 26-14 as readily as 37-25.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are France wins.

Middle half of outcomes: France by 8 to France by 37 · median France by 21

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a France by 21 is 32-11 as readily as 43-22.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Italy wins.

Middle half of outcomes: South Africa by 36 to South Africa by 7 · median South Africa by 19

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 36 and 84 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a South Africa by 19 is 33-14 as readily as 45-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Scotland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: New Zealand by 19 to New Zealand by 1 · median New Zealand by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a New Zealand by 7 is 24-17 as readily as 35-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Wales wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Japan by 1 to Wales by 23 · median Wales by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 68 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Wales by 8 is 22-14 as readily as 33-25.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are England wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Australia by 3 to England by 16 · median England by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a England by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are France wins.

Middle half of outcomes: South Africa by 12 to France by 5 · median South Africa by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a South Africa by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 32-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are England wins.

Middle half of outcomes: England by 5 to England by 32 · median England by 16

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a England by 16 is 29-13 as readily as 40-24.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ireland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ireland by 8 to Ireland by 36 · median Ireland by 19

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 80 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ireland by 19 is 31-12 as readily as 43-24.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Italy wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Argentina by 17 to Italy by 2 · median Argentina by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Argentina by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Wales wins.

Middle half of outcomes: New Zealand by 31 to New Zealand by 6 · median New Zealand by 16

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 36 and 82 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a New Zealand by 16 is 31-15 as readily as 42-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Scotland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Australia by 2 to Scotland by 14 · median Scotland by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Scotland by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are England wins.

Middle half of outcomes: New Zealand by 15 to England by 2 · median New Zealand by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a New Zealand by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 34-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are France wins.

Middle half of outcomes: France by 3 to France by 26 · median France by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a France by 12 is 26-14 as readily as 37-25.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ireland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: South Africa by 13 to Ireland by 6 · median South Africa by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a South Africa by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Italy wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Fiji by 3 to Italy by 16 · median Italy by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Italy by 5 is 21-16 as readily as 32-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Scotland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Scotland by 6 to Scotland by 32 · median Scotland by 17

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Scotland by 17 is 29-12 as readily as 40-23.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Wales wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Australia by 16 to Wales by 2 · median Australia by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Australia by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 33-28.