Nations Championship 2026

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ireland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ireland by 2 to Ireland by 19 · median Ireland by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ireland by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 34-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are France wins.

Middle half of outcomes: France by 6 to France by 34 · median France by 19

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a France by 19 is 30-11 as readily as 41-22.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Italy wins.

Middle half of outcomes: South Africa by 37 to South Africa by 8 · median South Africa by 20

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a South Africa by 20 is 31-11 as readily as 42-22.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Scotland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: New Zealand by 10 to Scotland by 2 · median New Zealand by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a New Zealand by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Wales wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Wales by 22 · median Wales by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Wales by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 35-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are England wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Australia by 3 to England by 17 · median England by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a England by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are France wins.

Middle half of outcomes: South Africa by 16 to France by 1 · median South Africa by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a South Africa by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are England wins.

Middle half of outcomes: England by 7 to England by 34 · median England by 19

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a England by 19 is 30-11 as readily as 41-22.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ireland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ireland by 7 to Ireland by 34 · median Ireland by 18

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ireland by 18 is 29-11 as readily as 41-23.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Italy wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Argentina by 18 to a draw · median Argentina by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Argentina by 7 is 24-17 as readily as 34-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Wales wins.

Middle half of outcomes: New Zealand by 23 to New Zealand by 4 · median New Zealand by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a New Zealand by 12 is 27-15 as readily as 37-25.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Scotland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Australia by 5 to Scotland by 11 · median Scotland by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Scotland by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 31-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are England wins.

Middle half of outcomes: New Zealand by 10 to England by 1 · median New Zealand by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a New Zealand by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are France wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to France by 23 · median France by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a France by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 34-25.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ireland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: South Africa by 17 to Ireland by 4 · median South Africa by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a South Africa by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Italy wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Fiji by 6 to Italy by 11 · median Italy by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Italy by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Scotland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Scotland by 6 to Scotland by 33 · median Scotland by 17

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Scotland by 17 is 29-12 as readily as 40-23.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Wales wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Australia by 11 to Wales by 4 · median Australia by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Australia by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 32-29.