← Competitions
Nations Championship 2026
Official siteAssume a result and see what follows from it. The figures come from the same 5,000 simulations behind the published forecast, counting only the ones that went the way you assumed — so a combination that never came up has no answer.
Nothing assumed yet — these are the published forecasts.
Assume a result
Select a winner, or a draw. Select it again to release it. Fixtures already played cannot be changed.
Round 1
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Round 2
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Round 3
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Round 4
Round 5
Round 6
What follows
Winning the tournament, and reaching the final, against the same figures with nothing assumed.
| Team | Win | Change | Qualify | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 34.0% | — | 55.8% | — |
| South Africa | 30.3% | — | 44.1% | — |
| France | 20.3% | — | 53.0% | — |
| Ireland | 8.9% | — | 20.8% | — |
| England | 3.6% | — | 12.6% | — |
| Scotland | 2.9% | — | 13.6% | — |
| Argentina | <0.1% | — | <0.1% | — |
| Australia | <0.1% | — | 0.1% | — |
| Fiji | <0.1% | — | <0.1% | — |
| Italy | <0.1% | — | <0.1% | — |
| Japan | <0.1% | — | <0.1% | — |
| Wales | <0.1% | — | <0.1% | — |