Argentina vs Canada
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 96.2%2.8% CanadaCanada 8.6%90.4% ArgentinaArgentina 93.4%5.6% CanadaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Canada, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Argentina and 53 Argentina, half of them between 9 Argentina and 38 Argentina, with the middle run at 21 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 47-26 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Canada.
Argentina 2036, Canada 1255 — 781 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina6–0–3Canada9 meetings, 1981 to 2005 · Argentina by 13.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005-07-02 | Canada 22–15 Argentina | — | — |
| 2003-08-30 | Argentina 62–22 Canada | — | Buenos Aires Cricket & Rugby Club |
| 2001-05-26 | Canada 6–20 Argentina | — | Fletcher's Field |
| 1998-08-22 | Argentina 54–28 Canada | — | Buenos Aires Cricket & Rugby Club |
| 1996-09-21 | Canada 21–41 Argentina | — | Fletcher's Field |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.