Argentina vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Ireland host Argentina on Friday 6 November at Aviva Stadium, Dublin, so Ireland are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Argentina 33.3%draw 1.7%65.0% IrelandIreland 87.4%draw 1.6%11.0% ArgentinaArgentina 21.9%draw 1.6%76.5% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Ireland v Argentina, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Argentina and 37 Ireland, half of them between 3 Ireland and 23 Ireland, with the middle run at 11 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ireland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ireland, a bar to the left helps Argentina.
Ireland 2351, Argentina 2036 — 315 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina8–1–16Ireland25 meetings, 1952 to 2024 · Ireland by 4.2 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Ireland by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-15 | Ireland 22–19 Argentina | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2021-11-21 | Ireland 53–7 Argentina | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-11-10 | Ireland 28–17 Argentina | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2017-11-25 | Ireland 28–19 Argentina | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2015-10-18 | Ireland 20–43 Argentina | — | Principality Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.