Argentina vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 37.6%draw 2.0%60.4% IrelandIreland 83.8%draw 1.9%14.3% ArgentinaArgentina 29.1%draw 2.0%68.9% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Ireland and 17 Argentina, with the middle run at 2 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours Ireland.
Argentina 1617, Ireland 1884 — 267 points, favouring Ireland
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina6–0–14Ireland20 meetings, 1990 to 2024 · Ireland by 4.7 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Ireland by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-15 | Ireland 22–19 Argentina | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2021-11-21 | Ireland 53–7 Argentina | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-11-10 | Ireland 28–17 Argentina | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2017-11-25 | Ireland 28–19 Argentina | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2015-10-18 | Ireland 20–43 Argentina | — | Principality Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.