Argentina vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 84.6%draw 2.1%13.3% ItalyItaly 26.6%draw 2.1%71.3% ArgentinaArgentina 78.1%draw 2.0%19.9% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Italy and 41 Argentina, with the middle run at 13 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-24 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours Italy.
Argentina 1617, Italy 1367 — 250 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina18–1–5Italy24 meetings, 1978 to 2024 · Argentina by 9.5 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Argentina by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | Italy 18–50 Argentina | — | Bluenergy Stadium |
| 2021-11-13 | Italy 16–37 Argentina | — | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2017-11-18 | Italy 15–31 Argentina | — | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 2016-06-11 | Argentina 30–24 Italy | — | Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López |
| 2014-11-15 | Italy 18–20 Argentina | — | Genoa |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.