Argentina vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 85.2%draw 2.3%12.5% ItalyItaly 32.0%draw 2.3%65.7% ArgentinaArgentina 76.8%draw 2.3%20.9% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Italy, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Italy and 43 Argentina, half of them between 3 Argentina and 29 Argentina, with the middle run at 14 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-24 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Italy.
Argentina 2036, Italy 1827 — 209 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina18–1–5Italy24 meetings, 1978 to 2024 · Argentina by 9.5 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Argentina by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | Italy 18–50 Argentina | — | Bluenergy Stadium |
| 2021-11-13 | Italy 16–37 Argentina | — | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2017-11-18 | Italy 15–31 Argentina | — | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 2016-06-11 | Argentina 30–24 Italy | — | Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López |
| 2014-11-15 | Italy 18–20 Argentina | — | Genoa |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.