Argentina vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 14.7%84.3% New ZealandNew Zealand 94.6%4.4% ArgentinaArgentina 9.4%89.6% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 41 New Zealand and 6 Argentina, half of them between 26 New Zealand and 3 New Zealand, with the middle run at 12 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
Argentina 2036, New Zealand 2476 — 441 points, favouring New Zealand
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina4–1–40New Zealand45 meetings, 1976 to 2025 · New Zealand by 22.5 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · New Zealand by 20.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Argentina 29–23 New Zealand | — | Estadio José Amalfitani |
| 2025-08-16 | Argentina 24–41 New Zealand | — | Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes |
| 2024-08-17 | New Zealand 42–10 Argentina | — | Eden Park |
| 2024-08-10 | New Zealand 30–38 Argentina | — | Hnry Stadium |
| 2023-10-20 | Argentina 6–44 New Zealand | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 45. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.