Argentina vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 12.2%86.8% New ZealandNew Zealand 82.7%16.3% ArgentinaArgentina 14.2%84.8% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 34 New Zealand and 3 Argentina, with the middle run at 10 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours New Zealand.
Argentina 1617, New Zealand 2045 — 428 points, favouring New Zealand
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina4–1–36New Zealand41 meetings, 1985 to 2025 · New Zealand by 23.5 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · New Zealand by 20.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Argentina 29–23 New Zealand | — | Estadio José Amalfitani |
| 2025-08-16 | Argentina 24–41 New Zealand | — | Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes |
| 2024-08-17 | New Zealand 42–10 Argentina | — | Eden Park |
| 2024-08-10 | New Zealand 30–38 Argentina | — | Hnry Stadium |
| 2023-10-20 | Argentina 6–44 New Zealand | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 41. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.