Argentina vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 92.4%6.6% SamoaSamoa 20.2%78.8% ArgentinaArgentina 85.8%13.2% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Argentina and 49 Argentina, half of them between 6 Argentina and 35 Argentina, with the middle run at 18 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-13 on a tight afternoon and 43-25 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Argentina 2036, Samoa 1512 — 524 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina2–0–3Samoa5 meetings, 1991 to 2023 · Samoa by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-22 | Argentina 19–10 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2005-12-03 | Argentina 12–28 Samoa | — | Buenos Aires Cricket & Rugby Club |
| 1999-10-10 | Argentina 32–16 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Stradey Park(neutral) |
| 1995-05-30 | Argentina 26–32 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Buffalo City Stadium(neutral) |
| 1991-10-13 | Argentina 12–35 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Sardis Road(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.