Argentina vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 93.5%5.5% SamoaSamoa 16.7%82.3% ArgentinaArgentina 88.0%11.0% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Argentina and 49 Argentina, with the middle run at 20 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-11 on a tight afternoon and 42-22 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours Samoa.
Argentina 1617, Samoa 1150 — 467 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina2–0–2Samoa4 meetings, 1991 to 2023 · Samoa by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-22 | Argentina 19–10 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 1999-10-10 | Argentina 32–16 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Stradey Park(neutral) |
| 1995-05-30 | Argentina 26–32 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Buffalo City Stadium(neutral) |
| 1991-10-13 | Argentina 12–35 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Sardis Road(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.