Argentina vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 95.7%3.3% USAUSA 10.4%88.6% ArgentinaArgentina 92.4%6.6% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Argentina and 52 Argentina, half of them between 8 Argentina and 37 Argentina, with the middle run at 20 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-12 on a tight afternoon and 43-23 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps USA.
Argentina 2036, USA 1537 — 498 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina9–0–0USA9 meetings, 1989 to 2019 · Argentina by 17.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-09 | Argentina 47–17 USA | Rugby World Cup | Kumagaya Rugby Stadium |
| 2003-08-23 | Argentina 42–8 USA | — | Buenos Aires Cricket & Rugby Club |
| 2001-05-23 | USA 16–44 Argentina | — | Mohawk Sports Park(neutral) |
| 1998-08-15 | Argentina 52–24 USA | — | Buenos Aires Cricket & Rugby Club |
| 1996-09-14 | Argentina 29–26 USA | — | Twin Elms Rugby Park(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.