Argentina vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 80.3%draw 2.4%17.3% WalesWales 28.8%draw 2.4%68.8% ArgentinaArgentina 74.7%draw 2.4%22.9% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Wales and 36 Argentina, with the middle run at 9 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours Wales.
Argentina 1617, Wales 1425 — 192 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina8–1–15Wales24 meetings, 1991 to 2026 · Wales by 3.8 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Wales by 4.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Argentina 35–21 Wales | Nations Championship | Estadio Bicentenario |
| 2025-11-08 | Wales 28–52 Argentina | — | Cardiff |
| 2023-10-14 | Wales 17–29 Argentina | — | Orange Velodrome(neutral) |
| 2022-11-12 | Wales 20–13 Argentina | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2021-07-17 | Wales 33–11 Argentina | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.