Argentina vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 79.5%draw 2.5%18.0% WalesWales 49.2%draw 2.5%48.3% ArgentinaArgentina 64.1%draw 2.5%33.4% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Wales and 36 Argentina, half of them between 1 Argentina and 22 Argentina, with the middle run at 9 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Argentina 2036, Wales 1868 — 167 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina10–2–15Wales27 meetings, 1968 to 2026 · Wales by 1.7 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Wales by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Argentina 35–21 Wales | Nations Championship | Estadio Bicentenario |
| 2025-11-08 | Wales 28–52 Argentina | — | Cardiff |
| 2023-10-14 | Wales 17–29 Argentina | — | Orange Velodrome(neutral) |
| 2022-11-12 | Wales 20–13 Argentina | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2021-07-17 | Wales 11–33 Argentina | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.