Australia vs Canada
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 97.7%1.3% CanadaCanada 4.3%94.7% AustraliaAustralia 96.3%2.7% CanadaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v Canada, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Australia and 55 Australia, half of them between 8 Australia and 39 Australia, with the middle run at 21 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 38 and 89 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-14 on a tight afternoon and 48-27 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps Canada.
Australia 2101, Canada 1255 — 846 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia6–0–0Canada6 meetings, 1985 to 2007 · Australia by 37.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-09-29 | Australia 37–6 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas(neutral) |
| 1996-06-29 | Australia 74–9 Canada | — | Ballymore |
| 1995-05-31 | Australia 27–11 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Boet Erasmus (EPRFU)(neutral) |
| 1993-10-09 | Canada 16–43 Australia | — | Kingsland Rugby Park |
| 1985-06-23 | Australia 43–15 Canada | — | Ballymore |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.