Australia vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 34.8%draw 1.7%63.5% IrelandIreland 73.4%draw 1.7%24.9% AustraliaAustralia 29.5%draw 1.7%68.8% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Ireland and 15 Australia, with the middle run at 3 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Australia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours Ireland.
Australia 1583, Ireland 1884 — 302 points, favouring Ireland
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia22–1–17Ireland40 meetings, 1927 to 2026 · Australia by 4.2 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Ireland by 2.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Australia 31–33 Ireland | Nations Championship | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-11-15 | Ireland 46–19 Australia | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-11-30 | Ireland 22–19 Australia | — | Dublin |
| 2022-11-19 | Ireland 13–10 Australia | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-06-23 | Australia 16–20 Ireland | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 40. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.