Australia vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 42.6%draw 2.1%55.3% IrelandIreland 81.1%draw 2.1%16.8% AustraliaAustralia 29.5%draw 2.1%68.4% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v Ireland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 29 Ireland and 14 Australia, half of them between 14 Ireland and 5 Australia, with the middle run at 2 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Australia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps Ireland.
Australia 2101, Ireland 2351 — 250 points, favouring Ireland
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia22–1–17Ireland40 meetings, 1927 to 2026 · Australia by 4.2 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Ireland by 2.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Australia 31–33 Ireland | Nations Championship | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-11-15 | Ireland 46–19 Australia | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-11-30 | Ireland 22–19 Australia | — | Dublin |
| 2022-11-19 | Ireland 13–10 Australia | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-06-23 | Australia 16–20 Ireland | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 40. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.