Australia vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 90.2%draw 1.9%7.9% ItalyItaly 25.8%draw 1.9%72.3% AustraliaAustralia 82.4%draw 1.9%15.7% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Australia v Italy, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Australia and 45 Australia, half of them between 6 Australia and 32 Australia, with the middle run at 17 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-11 on a tight afternoon and 40-23 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps Italy.
Australia 2101, Italy 1827 — 275 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia21–0–2Italy23 meetings, 1973 to 2026 · Australia by 19.9 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Australia by 17.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Australia 57–10 Italy | Nations Championship | HBF Park |
| 2025-11-08 | Italy 26–19 Australia | — | Bluenergy Stadium |
| 2022-11-12 | Italy 28–27 Australia | — | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 2018-11-17 | Italy 7–26 Australia | — | Stadio Euganeo, Padova |
| 2017-06-24 | Australia 40–27 Italy | — | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.