Australia vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 82.9%draw 2.3%14.8% ItalyItaly 26.5%draw 2.3%71.2% AustraliaAustralia 77.4%draw 2.3%20.3% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Italy and 43 Australia, with the middle run at 14 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-24 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours Italy.
Australia 1583, Italy 1367 — 216 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia19–0–2Italy21 meetings, 1983 to 2026 · Australia by 20.0 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Australia by 17.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Australia 57–10 Italy | Nations Championship | HBF Park |
| 2025-11-08 | Italy 26–19 Australia | — | Bluenergy Stadium |
| 2022-11-12 | Italy 28–27 Australia | — | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 2018-11-17 | Italy 7–26 Australia | — | Stadio Euganeo, Padova |
| 2017-06-24 | Australia 40–27 Italy | — | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.