Australia vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 26.1%draw 1.3%72.6% New ZealandNew Zealand 90.8%draw 1.3%7.9% AustraliaAustralia 16.8%draw 1.3%81.9% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 32 New Zealand and 14 Australia, half of them between 19 New Zealand and 1 Australia, with the middle run at 7 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 36-29 on an open one.
Why Australia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
Australia 2101, New Zealand 2476 — 375 points, favouring New Zealand
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia51–8–148New Zealand207 meetings, 1903 to 2026 · New Zealand by 8.0 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · New Zealand by 16.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Australia 21–43 New Zealand | — | Accor Stadium |
| 2026-10-10 | New Zealand 50–19 Australia | — | Eden Park |
| 2025-10-04 | Australia 14–28 New Zealand | — | Optus Stadium |
| 2025-09-27 | New Zealand 33–24 Australia | — | Eden Park |
| 2024-09-28 | New Zealand 33–13 Australia | — | Hnry Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 207. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.