Australia vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 90.7%8.3% SamoaSamoa 13.9%85.1% AustraliaAustralia 88.0%11.0% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Australia and 48 Australia, with the middle run at 18 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-12 on a tight afternoon and 41-23 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours Samoa.
Australia 1583, Samoa 1150 — 432 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia2–0–0Samoa2 meetings, 1991 to 2019 · Australia by 12.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-07 | Australia 34–15 Samoa | — | CommBank Stadium |
| 1991-10-09 | Australia 9–3 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Pontypool Park(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.