Australia vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 96.6%2.4% USAUSA 6.7%92.3% AustraliaAustralia 94.7%4.3% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Australia and 52 Australia, half of them between 9 Australia and 38 Australia, with the middle run at 21 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps USA.
Australia 2101, USA 1537 — 564 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia9–0–0USA9 meetings, 1912 to 2015 · Australia by 32.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-09-05 | USA 10–47 Australia | — | Soldier Field |
| 2011-09-23 | Australia 67–5 USA | Rugby World Cup | Hnry Stadium(neutral) |
| 1999-10-14 | Australia 55–19 USA | Rugby World Cup | Thomond Park(neutral) |
| 1993-10-02 | USA 22–26 Australia | — | — |
| 1990-07-08 | Australia 67–9 USA | — | Ballymore |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.