Australia vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 84.1%draw 2.2%13.7% WalesWales 29.7%draw 2.2%68.1% AustraliaAustralia 78.8%draw 2.2%19.0% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Wales and 42 Australia, half of them between 3 Australia and 28 Australia, with the middle run at 13 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-24 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Australia 2101, Wales 1868 — 233 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia34–1–14Wales49 meetings, 1908 to 2024 · Australia by 7.3 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Australia by 4.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | Wales 20–52 Australia | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2024-07-13 | Australia 36–28 Wales | — | AAMI Park |
| 2024-07-06 | Australia 25–16 Wales | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-09-24 | Wales 40–6 Australia | — | Groupama Stadium(neutral) |
| 2022-11-26 | Wales 34–39 Australia | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 49. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.