Australia vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 78.2%draw 2.6%19.2% WalesWales 40.8%draw 2.6%56.6% AustraliaAustralia 69.6%draw 2.6%27.8% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Wales and 33 Australia, with the middle run at 9 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours Wales.
Australia 1583, Wales 1425 — 158 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia34–1–14Wales49 meetings, 1908 to 2024 · Australia by 7.3 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Australia by 4.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | Wales 20–52 Australia | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2024-07-13 | Australia 36–28 Wales | — | AAMI Park |
| 2024-07-06 | Australia 25–16 Wales | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-09-24 | Wales 40–6 Australia | — | Groupama Stadium(neutral) |
| 2022-11-26 | Wales 34–39 Australia | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 49. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.