Bath Rugby vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 86.3%draw 2.5%11.2% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 20.0%draw 2.5%77.5% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 82.2%draw 2.5%15.3% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 39 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 13 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Bath Rugby 1766, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 592 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby13–0–7Newcastle Falcons20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 11.9 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Bath Rugby by 19.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Bath Rugby 69–12 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-12-21 | Newcastle Falcons 14–50 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-04-26 | Bath Rugby 55–19 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-12-21 | Newcastle Falcons 15–40 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-05-10 | Newcastle Falcons 17–28 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.