Bath Rugby vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 86.1%draw 2.5%11.4% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 21.5%draw 2.5%76.0% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 82.6%draw 2.5%14.9% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 37 Bath Rugby, half of them between 4 Bath Rugby and 25 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 12 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Bath Rugby 1768, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 728 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby14–0–7Newcastle Falcons21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 11.8 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Bath Rugby by 18.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Bath Rugby 69–12 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-12-21 | Newcastle Falcons 14–50 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-04-26 | Bath Rugby 55–19 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-12-21 | Newcastle Falcons 15–40 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-05-10 | Newcastle Falcons 17–28 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.