Bath Rugby vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 72.2%draw 2.5%25.3% UlsterUlster 54.1%draw 2.5%43.4% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 58.4%draw 2.5%39.1% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Ulster and 26 Bath Rugby, half of them between 1 Ulster and 15 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 6 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-29 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Bath Rugby 1768, Ulster 1582 — 186 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–2Ulster3 meetings, 2019 to 2023 · Bath Rugby by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-09 | Bath Rugby 37–14 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2020-01-18 | Ulster 22–15 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2019-11-16 | Bath Rugby 16–17 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.