Benetton Treviso vs Connacht
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 40.1%draw 2.5%57.4% ConnachtConnacht 85.0%draw 2.5%12.5% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 25.4%draw 2.5%72.1% ConnachtEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Connacht, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Connacht and 14 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 11 Connacht and 5 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 2 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-27 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Connacht.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Connacht 1783 — 371 points, favouring Connacht
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso4–0–14Connacht18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Connacht by 10.7 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Connacht by 2.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Benetton Treviso 19–22 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2025-09-27 | Connacht 26–15 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-03-01 | Connacht 38–30 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-04-14 | Benetton Treviso 39–24 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-03-30 | Benetton Treviso 18–14 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.