Benetton Treviso vs Connacht
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 38.2%draw 2.5%59.3% ConnachtConnacht 76.1%draw 2.5%21.4% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 29.5%draw 2.5%68.0% ConnachtEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Connacht and 14 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 2 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Connacht.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Connacht 1752 — 274 points, favouring Connacht
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso4–0–13Connacht17 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Connacht by 11.1 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Connacht by 5.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Connacht 26–15 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-03-01 | Connacht 38–30 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-04-14 | Benetton Treviso 39–24 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-03-30 | Benetton Treviso 18–14 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2023-04-01 | Benetton Treviso 41–19 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.