Benetton Treviso vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 82.9%draw 2.5%14.6% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 34.2%draw 2.5%63.3% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 73.9%draw 2.5%23.6% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 37 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 3 Benetton Treviso and 24 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 11 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 38-27 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 373 points, favouring Benetton Treviso
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso1–0–0Newcastle Falcons1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Benetton Treviso by 39.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-12 | Newcastle Falcons 18–57 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.