Benetton Treviso vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 76.6%draw 2.5%20.9% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 41.4%draw 2.5%56.1% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 65.8%draw 2.5%31.7% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Newcastle Falcons and 38 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 11 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 303 points, favouring Benetton Treviso
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso1–0–0Newcastle Falcons1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Benetton Treviso by 39.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-12 | Newcastle Falcons 18–57 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.