Benetton Treviso vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 53.0%draw 2.5%44.5% OspreysOspreys 79.3%draw 2.5%18.2% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 35.0%draw 2.5%62.5% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Ospreys and 20 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 6 Ospreys and 10 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 18-17 on a tight afternoon and 28-27 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Ospreys 1567 — 154 points, favouring Ospreys
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso6–0–10Ospreys16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ospreys by 9.6 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Ospreys by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Benetton Treviso 31–19 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2025-01-24 | Ospreys 43–0 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2023-12-09 | Ospreys 43–34 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2023-12-02 | Benetton Treviso 18–13 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2023-03-04 | Ospreys 20–21 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.