Benetton Treviso vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 53.7%draw 2.5%43.8% OspreysOspreys 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 41.7%draw 2.5%55.8% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Ospreys and 20 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 2 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Ospreys.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Ospreys 1470 — 8 points, favouring Benetton Treviso
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso6–0–10Ospreys16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ospreys by 9.6 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Ospreys by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Benetton Treviso 31–19 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2025-01-24 | Ospreys 43–0 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2023-12-09 | Ospreys 43–34 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2023-12-02 | Benetton Treviso 18–13 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2023-03-04 | Ospreys 20–21 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.