Benetton Treviso vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 42.7%draw 2.5%54.8% UlsterUlster 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 34.9%draw 2.5%62.6% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Ulster and 16 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 2 Ulster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Ulster.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Ulster 1633 — 156 points, favouring Ulster
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso2–2–13Ulster17 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Ulster by 11.3 on average
Last 10: 2–2–6 · Ulster by 5.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | Ulster 47–13 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-02-15 | Benetton Treviso 34–19 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-04-26 | Ulster 38–34 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-01-07 | Benetton Treviso 31–29 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2021-10-08 | Ulster 28–8 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.