Benetton Treviso vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 49.5%draw 2.5%48.0% UlsterUlster 82.6%draw 2.5%14.9% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 31.6%draw 2.5%65.9% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Ulster and 17 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 7 Ulster and 8 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Ulster 1582 — 169 points, favouring Ulster
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Benetton Treviso are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Ulster are on 48.0%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso2–1–13Ulster16 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Ulster by 12.0 on average
Last 10: 2–1–7 · Ulster by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | Ulster 47–13 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-02-15 | Benetton Treviso 34–19 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-04-26 | Ulster 38–34 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-01-07 | Benetton Treviso 31–29 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2021-10-08 | Ulster 28–8 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.