Black Lion vs Connacht
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 90.2%draw 2.5%7.3% Black LionEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Black Lion wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 33 Connacht and 5 Black Lion, with the middle run at 10 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 80 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-17 on a tight afternoon and 39-29 on an open one.
Why Black Lion are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Black Lion, negative favours Connacht.
Black Lion 986, Connacht 1752 — 766 points, favouring Connacht
Black Lion are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Connacht by 52.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Connacht 52–0 Black Lion | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.