Black Lion vs Connacht
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Black Lion 12.2%draw 2.5%85.3% ConnachtConnacht 88.5%draw 2.5%9.0% Black LionBlack Lion 10.2%draw 2.5%87.3% ConnachtEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Black Lion v Connacht, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Black Lion wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 37 Connacht and 1 Black Lion, half of them between 24 Connacht and 3 Connacht, with the middle run at 12 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-16 on a tight afternoon and 40-28 on an open one.
Why Black Lion are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Black Lion winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Black Lion, a bar to the left helps Connacht.
Black Lion 820, Connacht 1783 — 963 points, favouring Connacht
Black Lion are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Black Lion0–0–1Connacht1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Connacht by 52.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Connacht 52–0 Black Lion | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.