Black Lion vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Black Lion 18.4%draw 2.5%79.1% OspreysOspreys 85.3%draw 2.5%12.2% Black LionBlack Lion 14.7%draw 2.5%82.8% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Black Lion v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Black Lion wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 36 Ospreys and 3 Black Lion, half of them between 23 Ospreys and 1 Ospreys, with the middle run at 10 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-28 on an open one.
Why Black Lion are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Black Lion winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Black Lion, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Black Lion 820, Ospreys 1567 — 747 points, favouring Ospreys
Black Lion are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Black Lion0–0–1Ospreys1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Ospreys by 25.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Black Lion 14–39 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Avchala Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.