Bordeaux Begles vs Connacht
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 62.6%draw 2.5%34.9% ConnachtConnacht 56.7%draw 2.5%40.8% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 50.7%draw 2.5%46.8% ConnachtEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Connacht, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Connacht and 27 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 3 Connacht and 15 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 5 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Connacht.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Connacht 1783 — 42 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles1–0–2Connacht3 meetings, 2018 to 2023 · Bordeaux Begles by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-08 | Connacht 5–41 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2019-01-19 | Bordeaux Begles 27–33 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2018-10-13 | Connacht 22–10 Bordeaux Begles | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.