Bordeaux Begles vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 88.3%draw 2.5%9.2% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 17.4%draw 2.5%80.1% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 83.5%draw 2.5%14.0% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 40 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 13 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-27 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 739 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles0–0–2Newcastle Falcons2 meetings, 2017 to 2017 · Newcastle Falcons by 14.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-09 | Newcastle Falcons 52–24 Bordeaux Begles | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2017-10-21 | Bordeaux Begles 20–21 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.