Bordeaux Begles vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 89.4%draw 2.5%8.1% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 19.1%draw 2.5%78.4% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 83.8%draw 2.5%13.7% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 41 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 5 Bordeaux Begles and 26 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 14 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-15 on a tight afternoon and 41-27 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 785 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles0–0–2Newcastle Falcons2 meetings, 2017 to 2017 · Newcastle Falcons by 14.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-09 | Newcastle Falcons 52–24 Bordeaux Begles | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2017-10-21 | Bordeaux Begles 20–21 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.