Bordeaux Begles vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 79.1%draw 2.5%18.4% OspreysOspreys 44.1%draw 2.5%53.4% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 67.0%draw 2.5%30.5% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Ospreys and 33 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 1 Bordeaux Begles and 21 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 10 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Ospreys 1567 — 258 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles1–0–1Ospreys2 meetings, 2015 to 2015 · Bordeaux Begles by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-12-19 | Bordeaux Begles 33–27 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2015-12-12 | Ospreys 19–16 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.