Bordeaux Begles vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 75.1%draw 2.5%22.4% UlsterUlster 42.9%draw 2.5%54.6% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 65.0%draw 2.5%32.5% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Ulster and 35 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 10 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Ulster.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Ulster 1633 — 280 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles4–0–0Ulster4 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Bordeaux Begles by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | Bordeaux Begles 43–31 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-12-14 | Ulster 19–40 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2017-01-21 | Ulster 22–26 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2016-10-16 | Bordeaux Begles 28–13 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.