Bordeaux Begles vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 79.1%draw 2.5%18.4% UlsterUlster 45.5%draw 2.5%52.0% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Ulster and 32 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 1 Bordeaux Begles and 20 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 9 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Ulster 1582 — 243 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles4–0–0Ulster4 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Bordeaux Begles by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | Bordeaux Begles 43–31 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-12-14 | Ulster 19–40 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2017-01-21 | Ulster 22–26 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2016-10-16 | Bordeaux Begles 28–13 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.