Bristol Rugby vs Connacht
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 57.0%draw 2.5%40.5% ConnachtConnacht 61.2%draw 2.5%36.3% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 44.1%draw 2.5%53.4% ConnachtEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Connacht, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Connacht and 19 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 7 Connacht and 10 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Connacht.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Connacht 1783 — 22 points, favouring Connacht
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby1–0–1Connacht2 meetings, 2020 to 2024 · Connacht by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-19 | Connacht 27–10 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2020-12-20 | Connacht 18–27 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.