Bristol Rugby vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Newcastle Falcons 32.9%draw 2.5%64.6% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Newcastle Falcons and 34 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 9 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-28 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bristol Rugby, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Bristol Rugby 1588, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 414 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
15 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Bristol Rugby by 14.3 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Bristol Rugby by 20.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Newcastle Falcons 19–52 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-12-27 | Bristol Rugby 36–27 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-01-26 | Bristol Rugby 55–35 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2024-09-20 | Newcastle Falcons 3–24 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-04-21 | Bristol Rugby 85–14 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.