Bristol Rugby vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 86.9%draw 2.5%10.6% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 20.7%draw 2.5%76.8% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 82.5%draw 2.5%15.0% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 39 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 4 Bristol Rugby and 25 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 13 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-27 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 722 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby12–0–4Newcastle Falcons16 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Bristol Rugby by 12.4 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Bristol Rugby by 17.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Newcastle Falcons 19–52 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-12-27 | Bristol Rugby 36–27 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-01-26 | Bristol Rugby 55–35 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2024-09-20 | Newcastle Falcons 3–24 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-04-21 | Bristol Rugby 85–14 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.