Bulls vs Connacht
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 63.8%draw 2.5%33.7% ConnachtConnacht 51.5%draw 2.5%46.0% BullsBulls 55.5%draw 2.5%42.0% ConnachtEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Connacht and 25 Bulls, with the middle run at 4 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Connacht.
Bulls 1769, Connacht 1752 — 17 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls2–0–1Connacht3 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · level on average margin
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-17 | Connacht 27–28 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-11-25 | Bulls 53–27 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2021-10-01 | Connacht 34–7 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.