Bulls vs Connacht
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 73.2%draw 2.5%24.3% ConnachtConnacht 53.7%draw 2.5%43.8% BullsBulls 62.9%draw 2.5%34.6% ConnachtEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Connacht, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Connacht and 29 Bulls, half of them between level and 17 Bulls, with the middle run at 7 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 27 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-14 on a tight afternoon and 31-24 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Connacht.
Bulls 1862, Connacht 1783 — 79 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls4–0–1Connacht5 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Bulls by 5.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-17 | Connacht 27–28 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-11-30 | Connacht 14–28 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-11-25 | Bulls 53–27 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2022-09-30 | Bulls 28–14 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2021-10-01 | Connacht 34–7 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.