Bulls vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 81.4%draw 2.5%16.1% OspreysOspreys 34.6%draw 2.5%62.9% BullsBulls 73.0%draw 2.5%24.5% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ospreys and 33 Bulls, half of them between 2 Bulls and 22 Bulls, with the middle run at 10 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-14 on a tight afternoon and 34-24 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Bulls 1862, Ospreys 1567 — 295 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls5–0–0Ospreys5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Bulls by 16.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Bulls 53–40 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-10-12 | Ospreys 19–29 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Bulls 61–24 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2022-11-26 | Bulls 43–26 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2022-05-20 | Ospreys 31–38 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.