Bulls vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 78.5%draw 2.5%19.0% OspreysOspreys 37.9%draw 2.5%59.6% BullsBulls 69.4%draw 2.5%28.1% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ospreys and 36 Bulls, with the middle run at 10 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Ospreys.
Bulls 1769, Ospreys 1470 — 299 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls5–0–0Ospreys5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Bulls by 16.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Bulls 53–40 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-10-12 | Ospreys 19–29 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Bulls 61–24 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2022-11-26 | Bulls 43–26 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2022-05-20 | Ospreys 31–38 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.