Bulls vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls host Ulster on Saturday 24 October at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria, so Bulls are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Bulls 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% UlsterUlster 37.2%draw 2.5%60.3% BullsBulls 71.2%draw 2.5%26.3% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Ulster and 31 Bulls, half of them between 1 Bulls and 20 Bulls, with the middle run at 9 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-14 on a tight afternoon and 33-24 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Bulls 1862, Ulster 1582 — 280 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls2–0–3Ulster5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Bulls by 1.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Ulster 28–7 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-10-05 | Bulls 47–21 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2023-10-29 | Ulster 26–19 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-03-25 | Ulster 32–23 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-04-02 | Bulls 34–16 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.