Canada vs Chile
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 39.4%draw 1.9%58.7% ChileChile 82.0%draw 1.9%16.1% CanadaCanada 27.5%draw 1.9%70.6% ChileEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Chile, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Chile and 17 Canada, half of them between 10 Chile and 6 Canada, with the middle run at 2 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-20 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Chile.
Canada 1255, Chile 1530 — 275 points, favouring Chile
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada7–0–2Chile9 meetings, 2002 to 2024 · Canada by 16.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | Canada 14–44 Chile | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2021-10-09 | Chile 33–24 Canada | — | Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander |
| 2021-10-02 | Canada 22–21 Chile | — | Starlight Stadium |
| 2019-02-22 | Canada 56–0 Chile | — | Westhills Stadium |
| 2018-03-03 | Chile 17–33 Canada | — | Estadio Municipal de La Pintana |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.