Canada vs England
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 4.2%94.8% EnglandEngland 97.7%1.3% CanadaCanada 2.7%96.3% EnglandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 56 England and 2 England, half of them between 39 England and 8 England, with the middle run at 21 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 40 and 90 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 49-28 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps England.
Canada 1255, England 2235 — 981 points, favouring England
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada1–0–11England12 meetings, 1967 to 2021 · England by 29.2 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · England by 28.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-10 | England 70–14 Canada | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2004-11-13 | England 70–0 Canada | — | Twickenham |
| 2001-06-09 | Canada 20–59 England | — | Swanguard Stadium |
| 2001-06-02 | Canada 10–22 England | — | Fletcher's Field |
| 1999-08-28 | England 36–11 Canada | — | Twickenham |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.