Canada vs Fiji
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 13.9%85.1% FijiFiji 89.7%9.3% CanadaCanada 12.5%86.5% FijiEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 46 Fiji and 4 Canada, with the middle run at 16 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-14 on a tight afternoon and 41-25 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours Fiji.
Canada 661, Fiji 1412 — 751 points, favouring Fiji
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada2–0–3Fiji5 meetings, 1991 to 2017 · Fiji by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-11-25 | Fiji 57–17 Canada | — | Parc des Sports et de l'Amitie |
| 2015-09-06 | Fiji 18–47 Canada | — | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2007-09-16 | Fiji 29–16 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium(neutral) |
| 1999-10-09 | Fiji 38–22 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas(neutral) |
| 1991-10-05 | Fiji 3–13 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Bayonne(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.