Canada vs Fiji
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 10.4%88.6% FijiFiji 95.4%3.6% CanadaCanada 6.8%92.2% FijiEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Fiji, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 39 Fiji and level, half of them between 25 Fiji and 4 Fiji, with the middle run at 12 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-17 on a tight afternoon and 41-29 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Fiji.
Canada 1255, Fiji 1841 — 587 points, favouring Fiji
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada3–0–12Fiji15 meetings, 1964 to 2026 · Fiji by 17.8 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Fiji by 25.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fiji 45–29 Canada | — | Hanazono Rugby Stadium(neutral) |
| 2025-09-14 | Fiji 63–10 Canada | — | DICK'S Sporting Goods Park(neutral) |
| 2019-08-03 | Fiji 38–13 Canada | — | ANZ Stadium |
| 2017-11-25 | Fiji 57–17 Canada | — | Parc des Sports et de l'Amitie |
| 2015-09-06 | Fiji 47–18 Canada | — | Twickenham Stoop |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.