Canada vs France
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 3.2%95.8% FranceFrance 97.4%1.6% CanadaCanada 2.4%96.6% FranceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Canada v France, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 56 France and 2 France, half of them between 39 France and 8 France, with the middle run at 21 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 42 and 93 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 50-29 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps France.
Canada 1255, France 2301 — 1047 points, favouring France
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada1–0–9France10 meetings, 1978 to 2015 · France by 21.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-01 | France 41–18 Canada | Rugby World Cup | stadium:mk(neutral) |
| 2011-09-18 | France 46–19 Canada | Rugby World Cup | McLean Park(neutral) |
| 2005-11-12 | France 50–6 Canada | — | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 2004-07-10 | Canada 13–47 France | — | York Stadium |
| 2002-11-23 | France 35–3 Canada | — | Stade de France |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.