Canada vs France
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 6.6%92.4% FranceFrance 96.3%2.7% CanadaCanada 4.7%94.3% FranceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 53 France and 1 France, with the middle run at 21 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours France.
Canada 661, France 1842 — 1181 points, favouring France
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada0–0–4France4 meetings, 1991 to 2015 · France by 17.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-01 | France 41–18 Canada | Rugby World Cup | stadium:mk(neutral) |
| 2011-09-18 | France 46–19 Canada | Rugby World Cup | McLean Park(neutral) |
| 1999-10-02 | France 33–20 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Stade Raoul-Barriere |
| 1991-10-13 | France 19–13 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Stade Armandie |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.