Canada vs Georgia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 16.8%82.2% GeorgiaGeorgia 90.4%8.6% CanadaCanada 12.6%86.4% GeorgiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 41 Georgia and 7 Canada, with the middle run at 13 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours Georgia.
Canada 661, Georgia 1215 — 554 points, favouring Georgia
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada1–0–3Georgia4 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Georgia by 16.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Georgia 38–17 Canada | — | Adjarabet Arena |
| 2017-11-11 | Georgia 54–22 Canada | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2017-06-10 | Canada 0–13 Georgia | — | Calgary Rugby Park |
| 2015-09-02 | Canada 16–15 Georgia | — | Molesey Road, Hersham, Surrey |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.