Canada vs Georgia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 14.3%84.7% GeorgiaGeorgia 93.5%5.5% CanadaCanada 9.7%89.3% GeorgiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Georgia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 37 Georgia and 7 Canada, half of them between 23 Georgia and 2 Georgia, with the middle run at 10 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 84 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-18 on a tight afternoon and 40-30 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Georgia.
Canada 1255, Georgia 1899 — 644 points, favouring Georgia
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada3–0–5Georgia8 meetings, 2009 to 2025 · Georgia by 3.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Georgia 38–17 Canada | — | Adjarabet Arena |
| 2017-11-11 | Georgia 54–22 Canada | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2017-06-10 | Canada 0–13 Georgia | — | Calgary Rugby Park |
| 2015-09-02 | Canada 16–15 Georgia | — | Molesey Road, Hersham, Surrey |
| 2013-11-09 | Georgia 19–15 Canada | — | Dinamo Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.