Canada vs Hong Kong China
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 63.3%draw 3.0%33.7% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 55.1%draw 3.0%41.9% CanadaCanada 52.4%draw 3.0%44.6% Hong Kong ChinaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Hong Kong China, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Hong Kong China and 40 Canada, half of them between 2 Hong Kong China and 24 Canada, with the middle run at 7 Canada.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Canada are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Hong Kong China.
Canada 1255, Hong Kong China 1297 — 42 points, favouring Hong Kong China
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada6–0–1Hong Kong China7 meetings, 1996 to 2018 · Canada by 14.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-23 | Hong Kong China 10–27 Canada | — | Stade Delort(neutral) |
| 1998-06-13 | Canada 38–12 Hong Kong China | — | Shawnigan Lake School |
| 1998-05-09 | Hong Kong China 23–17 Canada | — | Aberdeen Sports Ground |
| 1997-06-07 | Canada 17–16 Hong Kong China | — | Thunderbird Stadium |
| 1997-05-24 | Hong Kong China 27–35 Canada | — | Aberdeen Sports Ground |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.