Canada vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 9.7%89.3% JapanJapan 94.8%4.2% CanadaCanada 6.8%92.2% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Japan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 42 Japan and level, half of them between 27 Japan and 4 Japan, with the middle run at 13 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-16 on a tight afternoon and 41-28 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Japan.
Canada 1255, Japan 1846 — 591 points, favouring Japan
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada8–2–18Japan28 meetings, 1932 to 2026 · Japan by 5.2 on average
Last 10: 0–1–9 · Japan by 20.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Japan 57–12 Canada | — | Denka Big Swan Stadium |
| 2025-08-30 | Japan 57–15 Canada | — | Yurtec Stadium |
| 2024-08-25 | Canada 28–55 Japan | — | BC Place |
| 2016-06-11 | Canada 22–26 Japan | — | BC Place |
| 2015-07-18 | Canada 6–20 Japan | — | Avaya Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 28. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.