Canada vs Namibia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 40.5%draw 1.9%57.6% NamibiaNamibia 67.3%draw 1.9%30.8% CanadaCanada 35.4%draw 1.9%62.7% NamibiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Namibia and 15 Canada, with the middle run at 1 Namibia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours Namibia.
Canada 661, Namibia 930 — 269 points, favouring Namibia
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada1–1–1Namibia3 meetings, 1999 to 2022 · Canada by 18.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-19 | Canada 37–43 Namibia | — | National Rugby Centre Amsterdam |
| 2019-10-13 | Namibia 0–0 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Kamaishi Recovery Memorial Stadium |
| 1999-10-14 | Canada 72–11 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Stade Toulouse(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.