Canada vs Namibia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 64.7%draw 3.0%32.3% NamibiaNamibia 50.5%draw 3.0%46.5% CanadaCanada 57.7%draw 3.0%39.3% NamibiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Namibia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Namibia and 41 Canada, half of them between 2 Namibia and 25 Canada, with the middle run at 7 Canada.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-15 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Canada are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Namibia.
Canada 1255, Namibia 1240 — 15 points, favouring Canada
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada2–0–1Namibia3 meetings, 1999 to 2022 · Canada by 19.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-19 | Canada 37–43 Namibia | — | National Rugby Centre Amsterdam |
| 2014-11-07 | Canada 17–13 Namibia | — | Parc Eirias(neutral) |
| 1999-10-14 | Canada 72–11 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Stade Toulouse(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.