Canada vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 30.9%draw 1.3%67.8% PortugalPortugal 86.6%draw 1.3%12.1% CanadaCanada 21.3%draw 1.2%77.5% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Portugal, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Portugal and 14 Canada, half of them between 12 Portugal and 3 Canada, with the middle run at 4 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 35-31 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Portugal.
Canada 1255, Portugal 1638 — 383 points, favouring Portugal
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada4–0–3Portugal7 meetings, 2007 to 2026 · Canada by 7.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Canada 14–38 Portugal | — | Clarke Stadium |
| 2025-11-22 | Portugal 33–27 Canada | — | Estádio Municipal Cidade de Coimbra |
| 2021-11-06 | Portugal 20–17 Canada | — | CAR Rugby do Jamor |
| 2013-11-23 | Portugal 8–52 Canada | — | Estadio Universitario |
| 2010-11-27 | Portugal 20–23 Canada | — | Estadio Universitario |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.